Could the Coronavirus Outbreak in China Impact the 2020 Tokyo Olympics?

Northumbria University’s senior lecturer in Sport, Exercise and Rehabilitation, Mikhail Batuev, discusses how the coronavirus epidemic affects the Olympics.

The Summer Olympics in Tokyo are still more than five months away, but as the coronavirus continues to spread in China, there are questions about whether the global health emergency might ultimately impact the Games.

Tokyo 2020 CEO Toshiro Muto announced that he was “seriously worried” the coronavirus could disrupt the Olympics, which are scheduled from 24 July through 9 August. But he was more measured in his remarks the following day, adding that the Games will “be held as scheduled.”

As officials continue to monitor the situation, here’s what you need to know about the coronavirus as it pertains to the upcoming Olympic Games.

How has the coronavirus outbreak impacted Japan?

The first cases of the coronavirus, which on Tuesday was named “COVID-19” by the World Health Organization, occurred in Wuhan, China. And while there have since been confirmed cases in 24 other countries, 99% of the more than 45,000 cases remain in China.

According to the most recent figures released by the WHO on Wednesday, there have been 28 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Japan, including 24 that involve people who have traveled to China.

There are also 454 confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which has been quarantined off the coast of Yokohama, Japan — about 30 minutes south of Tokyo.

What threat does coronavirus pose to the Olympics?

The Tokyo Olympics are expected to attract more than 11,000 athletes from about 200 countries, in addition to approximately 600,000 overseas visitors. The Paralympics follow from the 25th of August to the 6th of September with about 4,400 athletes expected to compete.

With so many people packed into a relatively small area, there is always the possibility for infectious diseases to spread. Norovirus infected hundreds of people ahead of the 2018 Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, for example. World Cups in football also pose similar challenges.

Mikhail suspects the impact of COVID-19 will be felt at the Olympics in one way or another, whether that’s something more serious like Team China’s sport performance or more subtle, such as the sponsorships and ticket sales for event organisers.

“It’s still too early to tell. While some estimates have the number of coronavirus cases peaking in late spring or early summer, the real future impact of the virus remains unclear.”